Yes, as I called it early this year, we would see more coastal development and more hurricanes. NHC did not predict this season correctly. TS Alberto will cause problems in regards to high surf as it’s already causing wave action. Alberto will meander a bit. The east coast will see minor coastal flooding around the Carolina’s. I will look into this with more detail tomorrow. I don’t trust models!
We do have activity in the Atlantic 400-500 miles southwest of the southern Azores. This system has some nice features. The potential is there for some development. 
No chance of becoming a hurricane.
As mentioned earlier and went against NHC and other experts in regards to hurricanes, this is going to be a busy year as NHC says different. Coastal storms will be prominent.
I received an interesting email about my hurricane outlook for this summer asking about this hurricane season. I’m flattered by people asking me this. I will never post a blue print about my forecast, but I will tell you it will be above normal, that’s my view. From my perspective, more direct hits and impacts along the east coast and the Gulf. You have to correlate a couple of things when it comes to forecasting a hit at which I will not mention on this page. The question is the availability of information and actual data. It stems down to that if this answers the questions to my forecasting an ”almost” flawless six years but, there is a whole culture of people forecasting weather now, but not many do what I do. I’d be the last person to deny I’m part of that culture!…. America leads the way with computer technology at which I don’t fully trust when it comes to predicting hurricanes. For me, I started keeping books about hurricanes at a early age and started learning each historical hurricane. I thought by doing this, this would make me learn quicker and it did. You have to study. This is the key for learning. I did study tracks of powerful hurricanes and learned what weather patterns triggered these storms….What I learned was that patterns were not the key in predicting a busy hurricane season. I also learned that analog years is the same–nothing. History doesn’t always repeat itself…. For god sakes, Long Island is “supposed” to be hit by a hurricane every ten years! How long has it been? These are just one of the things that bother me and I’ll explain more about this to some extent..What I will say is that I have a hot circuit inside me that understands hurricanes, starting young for me and I think everybody has this potential, just in different fields..Be seeing you.
What we will see is a year of hurricane hits and the number could be staggering. Impacts will be impressive along the east coast. My main concern for this season will be the Gulf and the west coast of Florida for mid- summer. Typically, Cape Verde storms/hurricanes take a swing north before hitting the coast—not this year. The pattern we’ve been seeing will break, but at the worst time, during the peak of hurricane season… More about this later next week. Be seeing you.
I do not go by analog years when it comes to hurricane forecasting as many experts do. Just look at Long Island. Many say every ten years Long Island would see a hit. Well, I’m here to tell you it’s been 27 years! Gloria also weakened before hitting the coast and hit at low tide causing $300 million in damage and one death due to a person hit by a falling tree. What about Bob? Well, Hurricane Bob was not a direct hit on Long Island, just an impact which did cause heavy rain and two tornadoes. Most of the impact was on the East End of Long Island, causing a price tag of $75 million at which $24 million was agriculture….Hurricane Irene does not count because she was a tropical storm when it hit the Tri-State.
“Experts” William Gray and Philip Klotzbach predict a quiet hurricane season! They say that “This year’s storm season could be the quietest one in the past three decades.”
I’m here to tell you that this is not true. In fact, we will see more hurricanes and direct hits. I won’t bore you with La Nina and El Nino. These two things are not the only driving force. We have above normal water temperatures in the Atlantic. That is a fact. Warmer sea surface temps do fuel storms. I don’t anticipate a weakening of this La Nina pattern and cooling in the Atlantic waters. Now, if La Nina was weakening 3-4 months ago, I would have a different forecast! What you can expect is a busy season and more homegrown storms to start early. Now, if we look into Cape Verde season, this will be very active. Traditionally, hurricanes that develop out there hook north. This year, a more westerly track will take place. The Gulf will see 1-2 major hits. The east coast will see 2-3 hurricane hits. South Florida will see a category 4 hurricane. Most of the east coast will see hurricane impacts. I’m still working on my charts for next week. I will post more about this on April 14th.
I knew my starting line in weather would begin at that age of ten or so. I think almost everybody can see that potential of who the person might be in that age group, just didn’t know what circuit I would tap until I was 29 years old. I started forecasting hurricanes and flawlessly predicted hurricane paths and patterns. I went against the “experts” and won every forecasted track. When I say ”not gonna happen” that is what happens. I am against hyped forecasts that are uncalled for. Media is a great tool when people listen. The problem is when people fall into the media trap and don’t take the next storm seriously; this will be a big problem. Earl was a hyped storm for Long Island which left a $30 million dollar price tag. I knew it and my team knew it. We saw many tree service trucks cross over the Throgs Neck Bridge and out of state utility trucks headed into Long Island at 12:30 in the morning as we traveled to the barrier island early Friday. The Long Island Power Authority spent excessive money for over 1,800 emergency crews to deal with possible power outages and nothing happened.
Irene was another hyped hurricane. We knew Irene would not be close to being a major hurricane when it arrived in the Carolina’s. A buoy near Cape Lookout measured and whopping 67 mph wind gust!… WOW! NHC still kept all hurricane warnings up for NYC and Long Island. Media began hyping this hurricane three days out calling for a hurricane strike. Again, we knew this hurricane would degenerate rapidly as it did. NWS issued tropical force wind warnings for the Hudson Valley and we didn’t get the winds. NHC and the NWS still posted tropical force winds. We encountered gusts in the 30′s and an occasional gust to 40 mph. Long Island did receive its tropical storm winds. No hurricane force winds were reported. Irene did create massive flooding due to over saturated grounds, simple as that.
In my opinion, this is one of many storms that are led to hype. If a reader says hype is good, that’s fine and if you say hype is bad, you can say that as well, for me, I particularly don’t agree with hype as it is not necessary if NHC can’t predict. Predicting hurricanes is something I know. On a real basic level, I’m fascinated with hurricanes and predicting. People often ask me if I care about critics. My response to that: There is nothing I can do about critical reputation. You can’t sit down and write a bestselling novel and think you hit the jackpot, but I can write about common sense and theory. My critics will read this and what they think doesn’t matter to me.
Earth has an interesting way of balancing things out. This trickles down to hurricane behavior. What we will be seeing is a persistent transient flow from the west. Systems will be slow to come and go. The National Hurricane Center is talking about a below average hurricane season, however they never state hurricane impacts and direct hits. You could have the busiest year on record as far as hurricanes in the Atlantic or Gulf, but not one strike. I don’t ever hype a storm. Big weather outlets tend to hype a storm for money and building an audience. If confidence is good about a hurricane strike, by all means, hype is good. Leave a comment if you have any questions. Until my next update,
Be seeing you.
As I predicted for seven years going against giant media outlets about direct hits and have been right. Now, you will see behind the hits and what this year will bring. Please stay tuned. Locally, we are in a pattern that won’t budge much. This isn’t going to keep hurricanes away from the states. Stay tuned.
Sunny weather until this weekend. Nice today and cooler for tomorrow. This weekend looks nice, just some clouds closer to Sunday. Nothing to report in the tropics. But hurricane season is rapidly approaching!
High pressure has arrived today, but not for long as a low pressure arrives and passes to our south. We will see rain for the lower Hudson Valley. Most of the moisture will be south of the region. We will have an easterly flow coming off the Atlantic ocean that should keep temperatures warm aloft at the boundary layer. You will see isolated snow for the higher elevations above 1000 feet above sea level. Weather models don’t use common sense as people suggest and rely on them. Use them as a reference.
Already, large media outlets are suggesting a season of below average hurricanes. I beg the differ!..The problem is the United States has a 100% chance of receiving a direct hit this year and even numerous hits.. You can have a busy season and have no hits. It’s been over years without a major hit and it has been ”busy”…This is the year!
Modification of Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Thresholds.Effective May 15, 2012, Category 4 on the SSHWS will be broadened by one mph at each end of the range, yielding a new range of 130-156 mph. This will also result in a minor modification of the Category 3 and 5 wind speed thresholds. The SSHWS will change as follows:... Category 3: 111-130 mph Category 4: 131-155 mph (114-135 kt, Category 5: 156 mph or higher (136 kt or higher, To: Category 3: 111-129 mph (96-112 kt, Category 4: 130-156 mph (113-136 kt, Category 5: 157 mph or higher (137 kt or higher, There will be no change to the wind speeds currently assigned to Categories 1 and 2.