Here is the excessive heat that I mentioned in my previous forecast.  As of 10:00am, the temp at Vails Gate Tower was already 83.7° and climbing at a rapid rate of +4.7°/hr.

While the humidity levels will remain at reasonable levels, the dew point will climb into the 70° range.  Because of that, heat indices will now climb into the low 100°s.

An Excessive Heat Warning is now in effect for Ulster, western Dutchess, western Columbia and eastern Greene Counties. Temps will reach 95°-100° with heat indices of 105°-110°.  This warning will probably be a repeat tomorrow.

A Heat Advisory is in effect for the remainder of the Hudson Valley and lower Catskills as temps will climb to the mid to upper 90s with heat indices of 100°-104°.  The Heat Advisory remains in effect for all of the Hudson Valley and lower Catskills again for tomorrow. However, as I stated, some areas will again be upgraded to an Excessive Heat Warning.

Additionally, the thunderstorm threat that I suggested for Thursday night is finally being shown on model runs.  Originally, model runs did not make any mention of a chance of thunderstorms, but I felt it worth mentioning due to building clouds from an approaching front, vertical uplift from the intense heat, and an arriving pre-frontal trough as the trigger mechanism.  Latest model runs are now showing a slight chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms late Thursday night.

As you all know, Dave Schwartz, a meteorologist at The Weather Channel from 1985-2009, joined our team in March.  Last weekend, he flew in from Georgia to visit with our team (sorry I missed you Dave, but I appreciated your humorous voice mail) and to appear as a guest speaker at the Relay For Life in the Town of Newburgh.

In the wake of Dave’s departure, it appears the heat from Hotlanta, Georgia has followed him to NY.  Although Father’s Day will remain overcast with highs barely reaching the 70° mark, clouds will slowly begin breaking up tomorrow with temps slowly on the rise throughout the week.

My models are showing more clouds than sun through Tuesday, with highs in the mid 70s on Monday and low 80s by Tuesday.

And then… A break from the clouds and rain – finally.

A Bermuda high will establish itself off the southeast coast, aided by a light west-southwesterly surface flow, which will allow for temps to soar into the mid to upper 90s on Wednesday and Thursday. This surface flow should help to keep the humidity levels down a bit.  Humidity levels too low could create a fire danger, while humidity levels too high would allow the heat index to reach Excessive Heat Watch standards.  Right now, it appears the Hudson Valley will walk that fine line in between and be safe on both ends.

One area we need to watch will be a slight possibility of thunderstorms later during the day on Thursday.  Right now, model runs do not even indicate a threat and it is still not worth forecasting.  However, cloud buildup from an approaching trough, aided by vertical uplift, could pose a slight thunderstorm threat if a trigger mechanism (ie, a frontal boundary) moves in soon enough as skies will begin clouding up by late Friday afternoon.

Temps will return to seasonable on Friday under mostly cloudy skies.  The aforementioned boundary – a pre-frontal trough and a cold front, will move in and create a chance of showers and thunderstorms throughout the day and evening.  Temps will still remain in the mid 80s, which could potentially aid the thunderstorm threat.  Our team will continue to monitor this.

For mariners, it appears Wednesday will be the best boating day of the season so far. Wear lots of sunblock as UV indices will be “sky high.”   Watch out for late-season debris on the Hudson River.  We went from a snowless winter to a rainy spring.  A lack of snowmelt prevented the typical April & May shore debris from washing into the river. Our four weather towers strategically placed throughout northeastern Orange County, including Vails Gate Tower, recorded 11.9″ of rain since January (including 1.01″ so far this month).  There are still pieces of wood and logs floating along the Hudson due to these conditions. Exercise caution and maintain a safe speed.

Also, in case you missed Dave Schwartz on national TV for 24 years, here is a clip of him: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVrwupzLiDQ