Excessive Heat Warnings now in effect

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Here is the excessive heat that I mentioned in my previous forecast.  As of 10:00am, the temp at Vails Gate Tower was already 83.7° and climbing at a rapid rate of +4.7°/hr.

While the humidity levels will remain at reasonable levels, the dew point will climb into the 70° range.  Because of that, heat indices will now climb into the low 100°s.

An Excessive Heat Warning is now in effect for Ulster, western Dutchess, western Columbia and eastern Greene Counties. Temps will reach 95°-100° with heat indices of 105°-110°.  This warning will probably be a repeat tomorrow.

A Heat Advisory is in effect for the remainder of the Hudson Valley and lower Catskills as temps will climb to the mid to upper 90s with heat indices of 100°-104°.  The Heat Advisory remains in effect for all of the Hudson Valley and lower Catskills again for tomorrow. However, as I stated, some areas will again be upgraded to an Excessive Heat Warning.

Additionally, the thunderstorm threat that I suggested for Thursday night is finally being shown on model runs.  Originally, model runs did not make any mention of a chance of thunderstorms, but I felt it worth mentioning due to building clouds from an approaching front, vertical uplift from the intense heat, and an arriving pre-frontal trough as the trigger mechanism.  Latest model runs are now showing a slight chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms late Thursday night.

 

Dave Scwartz visits, brings scorching heat with him

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As you all know, Dave Schwartz, a meteorologist at The Weather Channel from 1985-2009, joined our team in March.  Last weekend, he flew in from Georgia to visit with our team (sorry I missed you Dave, but I appreciated your humorous voice mail) and to appear as a guest speaker at the Relay For Life in the Town of Newburgh.

In the wake of Dave’s departure, it appears the heat from Hotlanta, Georgia has followed him to NY.  Although Father’s Day will remain overcast with highs barely reaching the 70° mark, clouds will slowly begin breaking up tomorrow with temps slowly on the rise throughout the week.

My models are showing more clouds than sun through Tuesday, with highs in the mid 70s on Monday and low 80s by Tuesday.

And then… A break from the clouds and rain – finally.

A Bermuda high will establish itself off the southeast coast, aided by a light west-southwesterly surface flow, which will allow for temps to soar into the mid to upper 90s on Wednesday and Thursday. This surface flow should help to keep the humidity levels down a bit.  Humidity levels too low could create a fire danger, while humidity levels too high would allow the heat index to reach Excessive Heat Watch standards.  Right now, it appears the Hudson Valley will walk that fine line in between and be safe on both ends.

One area we need to watch will be a slight possibility of thunderstorms later during the day on Thursday.  Right now, model runs do not even indicate a threat and it is still not worth forecasting.  However, cloud buildup from an approaching trough, aided by vertical uplift, could pose a slight thunderstorm threat if a trigger mechanism (ie, a frontal boundary) moves in soon enough as skies will begin clouding up by late Friday afternoon.

Temps will return to seasonable on Friday under mostly cloudy skies.  The aforementioned boundary – a pre-frontal trough and a cold front, will move in and create a chance of showers and thunderstorms throughout the day and evening.  Temps will still remain in the mid 80s, which could potentially aid the thunderstorm threat.  Our team will continue to monitor this.

For mariners, it appears Wednesday will be the best boating day of the season so far. Wear lots of sunblock as UV indices will be “sky high.”   Watch out for late-season debris on the Hudson River.  We went from a snowless winter to a rainy spring.  A lack of snowmelt prevented the typical April & May shore debris from washing into the river. Our four weather towers strategically placed throughout northeastern Orange County, including Vails Gate Tower, recorded 11.9″ of rain since January (including 1.01″ so far this month).  There are still pieces of wood and logs floating along the Hudson due to these conditions. Exercise caution and maintain a safe speed.

Also, in case you missed Dave Schwartz on national TV for 24 years, here is a clip of him: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVrwupzLiDQ

No more drought, for now…

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5/26/12 12:30 update

Rainfall over the last few weeks have helped to alleviate the drought conditions Orange County was facing.  Although the weather has been overcast with showers just about every day for 3 weeks now, don’t let that fool you.  Orange County has still only seen 3″ to 4″ of rain for the entire month, some of which came in brief, heavy bursts and turned into runoff before the ground could absorb it.  The few inches of rain was not much help after a snow-free winter.  Although ground levels are moist enough to alleviate the constant brush fire threats we were facing last month at this time, some water sources still remain lower than normal.  Last month’s drought no longer exists, but a period of hot, dry weather could cause drought conditions to return.

Expect continued overcast to partly sunny conditions with showers lingering around portions of the Hudson Valley for the next several days.  These storms will not become severe.

 

Still no severe weather for Orange County

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There has been no severe weather in Orange County since my last post and a tranquil period of non-severe weather will continue for at least the next week.  Areas to our north will see possible severe thunderstorms later today, but if a few stray storms reach Orange County, they will be non-severe by the time they arrive.  As I already reported in my last post, I will update when the next threat of severe weather arises.

 

Significant rainfall may end fire danger – for now

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4/20/12 23:30 update…

Scattered rain showers will begin overnight and continue throughout the day Saturday. With high temps in the low 70s, there is also a chance of isolated, non-severe thunderstorms as a weak warm front lifts and a weak cold front passes. Following the passage of the cold front, showers will become more frequent as it transitions into steady rain by late Saturday night.  Steady rain, heavy at times, will continue throughout the day Sunday and into Monday.

Significant rainfall totals will be seen. Up to 2″ of rain is nearly certain, but some areas could see up to 4-5″ of rain with the heavier bands.  Due to the prolonged dry conditions, we can handle this much rain.  Creeks, streams and rivers will have no problem handling this much rain runoff due to low water levels.  However, some ponding on roadways and minor urban flooding is possible when the rain becomes heavy.  Any standing rainwater will eventually soak into the dry ground or run off into streams and creeks.  Therefore, significant flooding is unlikely.

Even with this much rain, we are not out of the woods with the fire danger just yet.  It would be more beneficial to receive lesser amounts of rain broken up at different times.  This much rain causes runoff instead of a slow rain which could soak into the brush.  It will significantly help with the recent fire danger, but could resume if we do not see more slower, soaking rains over the next few weeks to come.

 

Drought and fire danger will continue

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4/13/12 12:15pm update…

Due to the precipitation deficits from the prolonged dry spell throughout the winter and the beginning of spring, the U.S. Drought Monitor yesterday declared a “D2″ severe drought across portions of southeastern New York, and a “D1″ moderate drought over portions of the lower Hudson Valley and NYC.

As of yesterday, mean areal precipitation totals over the last two month period were below normal.  The departure from normal ranged from 4″ to 6″.

As of the beginning of April, the National Weather Service reports normal to above normal soil conditions.  But with the recent dry conditions for the past several months and more dry conditions forecasted for at least the next two weeks, soil moisture conditions are expected to steadily decrease.

In addition, stream flow conditions continue to remain below normal across southeast NY. Reservoir levels across the NYC water supply system were reported at being approximately 6% below normal.  However, ground water levels varied across the region.  Some wells reported water levels within the normal range, but others already reported being below normal.

The Climate Prediction Center outlook for the month of April calls for above normal temperatures with near normal precipitation.  However, I believe this forecast to be slightly askew and precipitation totals are highly likely to remain well below the normal levels by the end of the month.

We will also have to keep an eye on the fire danger.  Red Flag Warnings (for fire danger) have been posted across the Hudson Valley on several occasions over the past few weeks.  At one point, the national Storm Prediction Center placed southern NY under a “critical risk” of wild fires – the same day of the massive forest fire on Long Island.  With no significant rain in the near-term forecast, the risk of brush fires will remain elevated, especially on days with low humidity and breezy conditions.

Will update on the drought conditions for May toward the end of this month – and continue to post on severe weather as needed.  However, no severe weather is likely across the Hudson Valley in the near future.

Tranquil conditions continue

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Tranquil conditions will continue with no severe weather to forecast in the near future. The only hazardous weather is the dry spell and possibility of brush fires on days with low humidity and breezy conditions. Temps will rebound to the low to mid 60s by the weekend. All snowfall for the Hudson Valley appears to be done for the season, with a slight possibility of 1 or 2 more systems bringing a very light slushy mix to the extreme higher elevations (ie, Hunter Mountain). Will continue to post as needed when severe weather begins approaching.

Cooler Temperatures Coming

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3/25/12 00:30 update…

A slow moving low front will bring periods of scattered showers to the Hudson Valley overnight and into late morning on Saturday. As the front moves out, clouds will slowly break apart throughout the day with highs climbing to around 60°.

A cold front will pass through on Monday, bringing breezy conditions with gusts to 30 mph and high temps only around 50°.

Although temps may seem cool, it’ll still be above normal for this time of year.  Over the last two weeks, daytime temps reached 80° twice, just as Dave Schwartz correctly predicted.  That was extreme, record-breaking warmth for March.  Highs of 50° are still above normal for this time of year.

Throughout the week, however, high pressure will build and daily high temps will gradually rise into the upper 50s by the end of the week.  On Friday, a warm front moves through, just in time to bring 60° weather back for next weekend.

Welcome aboard, Dave!

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I would like to take a minute to welcome aboard the latest member of our weather team.

Dave Schwartz, who worked at The Weather Channel from 1985-2009, will be writing weather columns on Page 2 of The Orange County Post Sentinel, as well as writing forecasts on our web page.  He was a fixture on The Weather Channel for many years and will be an asset to our team.

Growing up as children, we watched Dave because of his humor.  As adults, we learned from him when he explained weather situations.  His on-camera techniques were rare and personable, not like the dry content that current anchors read strictly from teleprompters.

Here is a clip of Dave…  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lkWcU4Vvis&feature=related

We look forward to having you aboard, Dave!

More unseasonably warm weather

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Wed 3/14 11:35 update…

Just as I forecasted, non-severe thunderstorms developed late last night.  They remained well north of the area (including Greene, Columbia, Rensellaer and Albany Counties) and our fans from those areas reported to us that the storms were lighting up the skies.

More unseasonably warm weather will tease the Hudson Valley with an early taste of summer, with highs today once again climbing into the low 70s.  This is like mid May. Temps here are nearly the same as they are in Myrtle Beach right now.  Expect more sunny skies with highs in the mid 60s tomorrow.

Friday’s temps will bring us a reality check and make it feel more like late April than mid May. Highs will only reach 60 degrees as cloudy skies prevail with scattered rain showers.

But just in time for the weekend, sunshine returns and temps climb back into the mid 60s. Another round of 70+ degree temps will return for Monday and Tuesday.